flu shots

I know fall is here because I cannot go anywhere without an ad, billboard, or email reminding me to get my flu shot. I've been joking a lot with friends about absurd conspiracy theories behind the shots (that they allow the government to track everyone... heh), so I figured I'd throw a few minutes into some internet "research" this morning.

The American authority on this matter are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. I also referenced a bit of the Illinois Department of Public Health.

About 10-20% of Americans get the flu virus each year.
The flu shot prevents influenza for 70-90% healthy adults under 65 years old, 30-70% of those over 65.

Okay, fine n dandy. What gets icky about these vaccinations is when the CDC touts that "the flu causes" 36,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations annually. These deaths are based on statistical models, not on real, recorded deaths. I'm an engineer and love numbers, but I also realize these numbers are recorded by people, and if you look for real numbers of recorded deaths directly attributable to flu, it's difficult to find stats of more than 1000 in a year.

What the CDC does is lump flu with pneumonia for its statistics, and sometimes the data is even more general as "respiratory illness." For instance, here's the 07-08 summary.

90% of deaths and 63% of hospitalizations due to flu / pneumonia occur for those over 65 years old (source).

What remains unclear from my brief research is the link between flu and pneumonia because the CDC simply states "flu can lead to pneumonia." This excerpt with CDC sources shows that of the 62,034 deaths from flu/pneumonia in 2001, only 0.4% were from the flu.

Think about that. How many of those 0.4% led to the other 99.6% of deaths - the link that the CDC suggests? Were those 99.6% bacterial or viral pneumonia? If anyone can find this data, please share.

Peter Doshi, while a Harvard graduate student, wrote a nice review on this topic, which was posted in the British Medical Journal.

My conclusion, before I get into conspiracy theory: consider a pneumonia and a flu vaccine.

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I tend to believe in the evils of money - not that people singlehandedly have malicious intentions, but where machinations can be obscured in groups, data, and collective-thinking, it seems to be easy for things to go awry. Consider our present financial crisis...

The flu vaccine is given about 80 million times annually in the US. From my own rough sampling, these cost about $20 each. That's $1.6 billion. Each year. Contrast this with about $30 for a pneumonia vaccine, but consider that these last up to 10 years. That's potentially only $240 million per year. Not quite as lucrative... 15% as lucrative.

My final comment: Vaccines are good. I'm glad we have science that can provide these wonders. Just please be aware of how they are being used.

And if you want more controversy, mercury.

TV cards

Thought these were pretty funny:

http://glark.org/truthful-tv-title-cards/

day 3

I'm on my third day of being part of the iphone elite. Psh!

This iphone thing is probably the coolest gadget I have ever used:

I downloaded the Laundry app, which when I run it, not only does my laundry, but also separates the darks from the whites from the colors. Yesterday, I grabbed the Maid app, which has this funny character that reminds me of Rosie from the Jetsons, but she left my shower as clean as the day I bought it. My favorite app, tho, is the Wolfgang Puck app, which made me a fantastic steak and lobster dinner last night.

But I think I'm getting the most cred for the RPN Calculator app. It's definitely the best way to make your engineering cohorts go "Ooooooo."

And, Dad, yes, the thing can even make a phone call. I just wish I could have gotten it in lime green...

Randomness I miss

Rainy days seem to make some memories return. I happened upon some old old rusty and dust-covered writing I had done from back in the day when I was much more hippie and much more hopelessly romantic. But time helps fade that away.

I miss summer evenings on a hammock. Laughing til I cry at late night television. Walking aroung campus soaked in warm rain. I kinda even miss feeling blissfully ignorant of what the real world's all about.

But back to reality. It's fun to think about what is and what could have been.

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